Hisham Sarwar
The emerging markets of today have considerable growth potential. They just need to strike the right balance in order to overtake the ruling economies. There is an economic shift taking place that can overtake the largest economies in a matter of few years.
According to the latest report 2017 PwC, Pakistan is expected to become the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world. It will acquire its place after Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh. For a period up to 2050, Pakistan’s GDP MER is likely to rise at an average of 4.4% annually.
Pakistan to become 19th largest economy by 2050 by GDP MER:
At $284 billion today, Pakistan ranks as the 28th largest economy but PwC forecast the country to become world’s 27 largest economies by the end of 2030. It is expected to reach up to $776 billion and will become 16th largest economy by 2050 with $2.83 trillion by GDP market exchange rates.
Pakistan is rising despite the odds
Despite the odds, Pakistan’s economy has started to turn around. The international press and overseas Pakistanis are caught in the stories of poor governance, public-sector corruption, and rising public debt. But PwC forecasts for 2030 and 2050 are different from all such beliefs. The media gives the impression that all hell has already broken loose. But that not what is actually happening. There are many other factors that have proven as a backbone for a rise in Pakistan’s economy.
20th largest economy by 2030 by GDP PPP:
It is expected that Pakistan will become world’s 20th largest economy by GDP PPP with $1.86 trillion by 2030. By 2050, it is expected to become the 16th largest economy with $4.23 trillion. Today, by GDP PPP the country ranks as 24th largest with $988 billion. Canada being the 17th largest economy today will slip to 18th by 2030 and to 22nd till 2050.
The economies that will be left behind by Pakistan:
According to the ranking in 2050, Pakistan will leave behind the economic giants of today by GDP PPP. The countries Pakistan is expected to leave behind includes Iran ($3.9 trillion), South Korea ($3.5 trillion), Italy ($3.1 trillion), Canada ($3.1 trillion), Bangladesh ($3 trillion), Malaysia ($2.8 trillion), Thailand ($2.7 trillion), Spain ($2.7 trillion), South Africa ($2.5 trillion), and Australia ($2.5 trillion).
Top two economies in 2050: China and India
The report states that the leading economies in 2050 will be China ($5.85 trillion) and India ($44.1 trillion) by GDP PPP. These two economies will top the US economy ($34.1 trillion) at number 3. Pakistan shares borders with both the future leading economies. On the other hand, Indonesia will take the 4th spot by 2050 on GDP PPP terms.
The biggest factors boosting this shift in the emerging economies are the growing populations, rising domestic demand, and size of the labor force. This growing number of population in such countries requires policies that ensure sufficient jobs which can only be achieved by investing in the education sector.
Challenges highlighted by PwC that are faced by economies to achieve sustainable growth
The authorities need to implement such strategies that are growth friendly and attract investment, talent, and businesses.
Governments need to revive the festering trade growth. They need to engage in the international market and share best practices.
Inequality is rising among classes therefore the governments need to ensure the benefits of growth and share across the society.
Climate change should be dealt on the global level and growth must be supported along environmental sustainability.
The policy actions must be reinforced by responsible institutions.
Via: Wali Zahid
