Hajra Naz
Mark Zuckerberg appears to be betting on prediction markets as the next big opportunity for Meta.
According to a report by The New York Times, Zuckerberg has approved plans for Meta to develop its own prediction market app. Internally, the project is reportedly known as “Arena.”
The app would operate separately from Meta’s existing social media platforms. However, sources familiar with the project say Meta could use its social networks to drive users toward the new platform.
Arena is still in the experimental stage, but insiders describe it as a high-priority initiative.
Interestingly, the first version may not involve real money. Instead, users would earn points by making accurate predictions on various topics. The experience would resemble a game more than a traditional betting platform. Sources say real-money features could be added later.
Prediction markets have grown rapidly over the past year. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have generated tens of billions of dollars in trading volume.
The industry’s growing popularity has also attracted attention from major social media companies. Last year, X partnered with Polymarket as interest in prediction markets continued to rise.
At the same time, the industry has faced increasing legal scrutiny.
One high-profile case involves a former special forces officer accused of using insider information related to an operation targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to make profitable trades.
Meanwhile, former U.S. Congressman George Santos is reportedly under investigation over alleged trading activity on Kalshi.
Several U.S. states have also filed lawsuits against prediction market operators. Regulators argue that some of these platforms may violate gambling laws.
The legal landscape has become even more complicated as the current U.S. administration, which generally supports prediction markets, has challenged states that have taken action against the industry.
